Bonilla Bedoya, Santiago
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Bonilla Bedoya, Santiago
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Quito
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santiagobonilla@uti.edu.ec
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55360745200

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Beyond Global Trends: Two Decades of Climate Data in the World’s Highest Equatorial City

2025 , Rasa Zalakeviciute , Fidel Vallejo , Bolívar Erazo , Oscar Chimborazo , Bonilla Bedoya, Santiago , Danilo Mejia , Tobias Isaac Tapia-Flores , Genesis Chuquimarca , Yves Rybarczyk

While humanity stands at a critical point—one future leading toward sustainability, equity, and resilience, the other toward escalating conflicts, ecological collapse, and irreversible loss—climate change emerges as one of the most urgent challenges of the 21st century. The Global South, specifically the northwestern South American region, lacks model confidence and reports on current climatic conditions due to gaps in historical data. This study, therefore, presents temperature and precipitation trends in the highest city on the equator, Quito, Ecuador, from 2004–2024. Six different districts were analyzed for maximum, average, and minimum temperatures, as well as cumulative precipitation, in terms of monthly and annual statistics, using Seasonal-Trend Decomposition. Over the past two decades, this Andean city has warmed by an average of +0.95 °C, with minimum temperatures rising at rates twice the global urban average of extreme urban heat islands (+2.47 °C), while precipitation has nearly doubled in rapidly developing parts of the city. These profound changes, shaped by urban expansion, El Niño–Southern Oscillation variability, and climate change, demand urgent adaptation in water management, urban planning, and climate resilience strategies, as well as comparative studies with rural Ecuador to differentiate local vs. regional climate signatures.

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Gradient boosting machine to assess the public protest impact on urban air quality

2021 , Zalakeviciute R. , Rybarczyk Y. , Alexandrino K. , Bonilla Bedoya, Santiago , Mejia D. , Bastidas M. , Diaz V.

Political and economic protests build-up due to the financial uncertainty and inequality spreading throughout the world. In 2019, Latin America took the main stage in a wave of protests. While the social side of protests is widely explored, the focus of this study is the evolution of gaseous urban air pollutants during and after one of these events. Changes in concentrations of NO2, CO, O3 and SO2 during and after the strike, were studied in Quito, Ecuador using two approaches: (i) inter-period observational analysis; and (ii) machine learning (ML) gradient boosting machine (GBM) developed business-as-usual (BAU) comparison to the observations. During the strike, both methods showed a large reduction in the concentrations of NO2 (31.5–32.36%) and CO (15.55–19.85%) and a slight reduction for O3 and SO2. The GBM approach showed an exclusive potential, especially for a lengthier period of predictions, to estimate strike impact on air quality even after the strike was over. This advocates for the use of machine learning techniques to estimate an extended effect of changes in human activities on urban gaseous pollution. © 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.

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War Impact on Air Quality in Ukraine

2022 , Zalakeviciute, R. , Mejia, D. , Alvarez, H. , Bermeo, X. , Bonilla Bedoya, Santiago , Rybarczyk, Y. , Lamb, B.

In the light of the 21st century, after two devastating world wars, humanity still has not learned to solve their conflicts through peaceful negotiations and dialogue. Armed conflicts, both international and within a single state, still cause devastation, displacement, and death all over the world. Not to mention the consequences that war has on the environment. Due to a lack of published research about war impact on modern air quality, this work studies air pollution evolution during the first months of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Satellite images of NO2, CO, O3, SO2, and PM2.5 over Ukrainian territory and PM2.5 land monitoring data for Kyiv were analyzed. The results showed that NO2 and PM2.5 correlated the most with war activities. CO and O3 levels increased, while SO2 concentrations reduced four-fold as war intensified. Drastic increases in pollution (especially PM2.5) from bombing and structural fires, raise additional health concerns, which might have serious implications for the exposed local and regional populations. This study is an invaluable proof of the impact any armed conflict has on air quality, the population, and environment. © 2022 by the authors.

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Vulnerability assessment of natural heritage in the North-Eastern Ecuadorian Amazon using land use cover and nature protection status

2024 , J. Durango-Cordero , M. Saqalli , Bonilla Bedoya, Santiago , A. Elger

This study evaluates the vulnerability of natural heritage in the Northeast Ecuadorian Amazon (NEA), from the perspective of intrinsic vulnerability. Therefore, two proxy indicators of vulnerability were established: (i) the ecological integrity vulnerability index (EIVI), indicating the potential loss of ecological integrity, assessed by protection status (2018); (ii) the biological diversity vulnerability index (BVI), deriving the potential loss of biological diversity, using land cover/land use (2014). Biodiversity values were derived with land cover-related biodiversity data, and (iii) and compared with spatial congruence/correlation between (i) and (ii). The EIVI was directly derived using protection status, which defines vulnerability levels by ranking them according to corresponding levels of anthropic development allowance. A robust relationship between land use classes and species richness was found for both endemic vascular plants in neotropical regions and multi-taxa in tropical forests worldwide, validating the BVI. Furthermore, the moderate spatial correlation between protection status and land cover (r = 0.52) may be partially explained by 3,060 km2 of unprotected primary forest. Overall, 42 % of the NEA have a high degree of congruence between potential biodiversity and protection status. In conclusion, this study provides insights into nature conservation efforts in areas with sparse biodiversity data using readily available geographic information.

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Calculating minimum safety distance against wildfires at the wildland-urban interface in Chile and Spain

2022 , Castillo Soto, M.E. , Molina Martínez, J.R. , Bonilla Bedoya, Santiago , Moreno García, R.A.

Wildfires in the urban-forest interface constitute a civil protection emergency, causing considerable personal injury and damage to properties. The potential impacts of wildfires on buildings can be minimized by reducing the surrounding fuel and the use of structural materials with low flammability. However, the costs associated with implementing these actions and the responsibility for maintenance usually present conflicts with the property owners. This study aimed to identify minimum safety distances in wildland-urban interfaces within priority areas. The priority areas were identified based on the integration of fire risk and fuel hazard. Radiant heat is a variable in the behavior of fire that directly influences the definition of safety distances. In this research the radiant heat transfer was calculated based on the potential fire behavior for each study area. A comparative study of the horizontal heat transfer method and the radiant heat flux model was carried out. The horizontal heat transfer method indicated the highest vegetation-free distances, ranging from 23 m to 32 m. Some safety distances were validated using experimental fires and wildfires. The findings from the experimental fires and wildfires emphasize the need for a progressive fuel load reduction to mitigate radiant heat transfer. This may include both the removal of surface fuel and removal of trees to mitigate against crown fires. Our findings provide relevant information for decision-making on the effectiveness and efficiency of safety distances at the wildland-urban interface. © 2022 The Author(s)

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Socioecological system and potential deforestation in Western Amazon forest landscapes

2018 , Bonilla Bedoya, Santiago , Estrella-Bastidas A. , Molina J.R. , Herrera M.Á.

The ecosystem services provided by tropical forests are affected by deforestation. Territorial management strategies aim to prevent and mitigate forest loss. Therefore, modeling potential land use changes is important for forest management, monitoring, and evaluation. This study determined whether there are relationships between forest vulnerability to deforestation (potential deforestation distribution) and the forest management policies applied in the Ecuadorian Amazon. Proxy and underlying variables were used to construct a statistical model, based on the principle of maximum entropy that could predict potential land use changes. Entropy can be seen as a measure of uncertainty for a density function. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis and the Jackknife Test were used to validate the model. The importance of input variables in the model was determined through: Percent Contribution (PC) and Permutation Importance (PI). The results were compared with prevailing regional forest management strategies. The socioeconomic variables that provided the largest amount of information in the overall model (AUC = 0.81) and that showed most of the information not present in other variables were: “Protected areas-Intangible zone” (PC = 24%, PI = 12.4%), “timber harvesting programs” (PC = 21.7%, PI = 4.7%), “road network” (PC = 18.9%, PI = 7.7%), and “poverty rate” (PC = 3.7%, PI = 6.1%). Also, the biophysical variable “temperature” (PC = 7,9%, PI = 22.3%) provided information in the overall model. The results suggested the need for changes in forest management strategies. Forest policies and management plans should consider integrating and strengthening protected areas and intangible zones, as well as restricting timber harvesting in native forest and establishing forest areas under permanent management. Furthermore, the results also suggested that financial incentive programs to reduce deforestation have to be evaluated because their present distribution is inefficient. In this context, conservation incentive plans need to be revised so that they focus on areas at deforestation risk. © 2018 Elsevier B.V.

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Urban Air Pollution in the Global South: A Never-Ending Crisis?

2025 , Rasa Zalakeviciute , Jesus Lopez-Villada , Alejandra Ochoa , Valentina Moreno , Ariana Byun , Esteban Proaño , Danilo Mejía , Bonilla Bedoya, Santiago , Yves Rybarczyk , Fidel Vallejo

Among the challenges the human population needs to address are threats of global pandemics, increasing socioeconomic inequality, especially in developing countries, and anthropogenic climate change. The latter’s effect has been amplified with the arrival of 2023/24 El Niño, causing an exceptional drought in the Amazon basin, significantly affecting fire conditions and hydroelectric power production in several South American countries, including Ecuador. This study analyzes five criteria pollutants—carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), ozone (O3), and particulate matter ≤ 2.5 µm (PM2.5)—during 2019–2024 in Quito, Ecuador, a high-elevation tropical metropolis. Despite long-term efforts to regulate emissions, air pollution levels continue to rise, driven by overlapping crises, including energy shortages, political unrest, and extreme weather events. The persistent failure to improve air quality underscores the vulnerability of developing nations to climate change-induced energy instability and the urgent need for adaptive, diversified, and resilient future energy planning. Without immediate shifts in climate adaptation policies, cities like Quito will continue to experience worsening air quality, with severe implications for public health and environmental sustainability.

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Effects on Soil Organic Carbon Stock in the Context of Urban Expansion in the Andes: Quito City Case

2025 , Karla Uvidia , Laura Salazar-Cotugno , Juan Ramón Molina , Gilson Fernandes Silva , Bonilla Bedoya, Santiago

Urbanization is a driving force of landscape transformation. One of the ecosystems most vulnerable to urban expansion processes is montane forests located in high altitude mountainous regions. Despite their significance for biodiversity, regulation of the hydrological cycle, stability, prevention of soil erosion, and potential for organic carbon storage, these forest ecosystems show high vulnerability and risk due to the global urbanization process. We analyzed the potential variations produced by land cover change in some attributes related to soil organic matter in transitional forest fragments due to the expansion of a predominantly urban matrix landscape. We identified and characterized a fragment of a high montane evergreen forest in the Western Cordillera of the Northern Andes located in the urban limits of Quito. Then, we comparatively analyzed the variations in the attributes associated with soil organic carbon: soil organic matter, density, texture, nitrogen, phosphorus, and pH. We also considered the following soil coverages: forest, eucalyptus plantations, and grassland. We viewed the latter two as hinge coverages between forests and urban expansion. Finally, we estimated variations in soil organic carbon stock in the three analyzed coverages. For the montane forest fragment, we identified 253 individuals distributed among 18 species, corresponding to 10 families and 14 genera. We found significant variations in soil attributes associated with organic matter and an estimated 66% reduction in the carbon storage capacity of montane soils when they lose their natural cover and are replaced by Eucalyptus globulus plantations. Urban planning strategies should consider the conservation and restoration of natural and degraded peri-urban areas, ensuring sustainability and utilizing nature-based solutions for global climate change adaptation and mitigation. Peri-urban agroforestry systems represent an opportunity to replace and restore conventional forestry or crop plantation systems in peri-urban areas that affect the structure and function of ecosystems and, therefore, the goods and services derived from them.

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Urban soils as a spatial indicator of quality for urban socio-ecological systems

2021 , Bonilla Bedoya, Santiago , López-Ulloa M. , Mora-Garcés A. , Macedo-Pezzopane J.E. , Salazar L. , Herrera M.Á.

The development of criteria and indicators to quantify the transition to sustainability of the urban socio-ecological systems quality is determinant for planning policies and the 21st century urban agenda. This study models the spatial variation in the concentration and distribution of some macronutrients, micronutrients, and trace nutrients in the soil of a high-altitude city in the Andes. Meanwhile, machine learning methods were employed to study some interactions between the different dimensions that constitute an urban socio-ecosystem that caused these variations. We proposed a methodology that considered two phases: a) field work to collect data on 300 soil samples; laboratory analysis to measure the concentrations of 24 macronutrients, micronutrients, and trace nutrients; and the design of geophysical, spectral, and urban co-variables; b) statistical and geo-informatics analysis, where multivariate analysis grouped the elements into factors; and, machine learning integrated with co-variables was applied to derive the intensity of each factor across the city. Multivariate statistics described the variation in soil co-concentrations with a moderate percentage (42%). Four factors were determined that grouped some of the analyzed elements, as follows: F1 (Zn, S, Cu, Pb, Ni, and Cr), F2 (Ba, Ag, K, In, and Mg), F3 (B, V, Li, and Sr), and F4 (Si and Mn). The percentage R2 out-of-bag of the spatial model were: F1 = 20%, F2 = 8%, F3 = 14%, and F4 = 10%. Our outputs show that the enrichment and contamination by anthropogenic factors, such as the increase in population density, land use, road network, and traffic generated by fossil fuel vehicles, should be prioritized in urban planning decisions. © 2021

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Patterns of timber harvesting and its relationship with sustainable forest management in the western Amazon, Ecuador case

2017 , Bonilla Bedoya, Santiago , Estrella-Bastidas A. , Ordoñez M. , Sánchez A. , Herrera M.A.

The Amazon rainforest lies within the most diverse forest ecosystem in the world. However, a large part of the tropical rainforest is being degraded because of timber harvesting without any sustainability criteria and owing to a limited understanding of the effects of forest exploitation. The Ecuadorian Amazon (EA) is part of the Andes Amazon (AA), an area covered by five countries (Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia). This research identified the patterns of legal timber harvesting in the EA and determined current trends with respect to mostly harvested forest species. Two harvesting programs aimed at small farmers prevail in the EA: first, naturally regenerated trees felling program, and simplified timber harvesting programs in native forests. Considering the surface and volume of logging, significant differences were detected between logging procedures and ecosystems in the region. Two hundred and thirty-two genera are registered for harvest and, 51.93% of the total harvesting volume comes from eight genera and ten species. This research shows that in fallows of fragmented forest ecosystems, small farmers are harvesting fast-growing pioneer species. Maintaining a sustainable production in timber harvesting depends, by and large, on the harvesting and felling programs established on small farms. © 2017 Taylor & Francis.

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