Centro de Investigación para el Territorio y el Hábitat Sostenible

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Universidad Indoamérica

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Tourism transport capacity under wildfire risk: A framework for highly visited protected areas
(Elsevier BV, 2026-09)
Ortega, M.
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Bonilla Bedoya, Santiago
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Molina, J.R.
Ecotourism is a major driver of rural development, particularly in natural protected areas. Existing approaches to estimating sustainable tourism capacity in these areas have focused primarily on physical, ecological, perceptual, and economic dimensions. However, these frameworks do not explicitly incorporate risks to people, vehicles, and infrastructure under wildfire scenarios. Given the global rise in large wildfires, this study develops a framework to quantify tourism transport capacity in a highly visited protected area. Tourism transport fire capacity is defined as the maximum number of vehicles permitted within a given sector to minimize wildfire exposure and potential impacts on infrastructure and assets. This capacity is determined by the interaction among structural infrastructure risk, tourism transport fire exposure, and the fire spread index. Under extreme fire spread conditions, results indicate that the number of vehicles during summer weekends should be reduced by 28–34% relative to current levels. Furthermore, when flame lengths exceed 4.3 m, 83.3% of the vegetation-free buffer strips tested in experimental burns fail to prevent impacts on infrastructure or vehicles. This study advances a risk-informed framework for integrating wildfire dynamics into tourism transport capacity assessments. The proposed approach should be incorporated into protected area management planning guidelines, in alignment with evolving fire regimes and regulatory requirements.
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Sentinel satellite data monitoring of air pollutants with interpolation methods in Guayaquil, Ecuador
(2023)
Mejía C. D.
;
Alvarez H.
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Zalakeviciute R.
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Macancela D.
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Sanchez C.
In Ecuador, there is a limitation on air quality monitoring due to the cost of monitoring networks. Although air quality monitoring stations are instruments for air measurement, they do not cover an entire city due to their scope. Satellite remote sensing is now an effective tool to study atmospheric pollutants and has been applied to continuously assess a region and overcome the limitations of fixed stations. Despite the application of satellite data for air quality monitoring, there are some limitations, such as measurement frequency, cloud cover and wide spatial resolution, which do not allow the assessment of air pollution in cities. Therefore, downscaling, applying interpolation methods, is essential for continuous air quality monitoring at smaller scales. For this research, Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) data from the Sentinel-5 satellite percussor was used in the city of Guayaquil for January–December 2020, which is considered before, during and after the COVID-19 quarantine. This mid-size port city does not have a permanent monitoring network, which prevents us from knowing the air quality. Due to the limitation of pixel size, this study used satellite data to apply interpolation techniques and reduce pixels to assess air quality. Two categories of interpolation were selected: deterministic and stochastic. The empirical Bayesian kriging (EBK) interpolation obtained a R2 of 0.9546, which was superior to the other methods applied. Therefore, the EBK method had the best accuracy for tropospheric NO2 concentration. Finally, the method used in this research can help monitor air quality in cities lacking continuous monitoring networks, as the reduction of the pixel size gives us a better pattern of pollutants. © 2023 The Authors
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Vulnerability assessment of natural heritage in the North-Eastern Ecuadorian Amazon using land use cover and nature protection status
(2024)
J. Durango-Cordero
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M. Saqalli
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Bonilla Bedoya, Santiago
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A. Elger
This study evaluates the vulnerability of natural heritage in the Northeast Ecuadorian Amazon (NEA), from the perspective of intrinsic vulnerability. Therefore, two proxy indicators of vulnerability were established: (i) the ecological integrity vulnerability index (EIVI), indicating the potential loss of ecological integrity, assessed by protection status (2018); (ii) the biological diversity vulnerability index (BVI), deriving the potential loss of biological diversity, using land cover/land use (2014). Biodiversity values were derived with land cover-related biodiversity data, and (iii) and compared with spatial congruence/correlation between (i) and (ii). The EIVI was directly derived using protection status, which defines vulnerability levels by ranking them according to corresponding levels of anthropic development allowance. A robust relationship between land use classes and species richness was found for both endemic vascular plants in neotropical regions and multi-taxa in tropical forests worldwide, validating the BVI. Furthermore, the moderate spatial correlation between protection status and land cover (r = 0.52) may be partially explained by 3,060 km2 of unprotected primary forest. Overall, 42 % of the NEA have a high degree of congruence between potential biodiversity and protection status. In conclusion, this study provides insights into nature conservation efforts in areas with sparse biodiversity data using readily available geographic information.
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Urban soil management in the strategies for adaptation to climate change of cities in the Tropical Andes
(2022)
Bonilla Bedoya, Santiago
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Ángel Herrera, M.
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Vaca, A.
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Salazar, L.
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Zalakeviciute, R.
The unique characteristics of a city amplify the impacts of climate change; therefore, urban planning in the 21st century is challenged to apply mitigation and adaptation strategies that ensure the collective well-being. Despite advances in monitoring urban environmental change, research on the application of adaptation-oriented criteria remains a challenge in urban planning in the Global South. This study proposes to include urban land management as a criterion and timely strategy for climate change adaptation in the cities of the Tropical Andes. Here, we estimate the distribution of the soil organic carbon stock (OCS) of the city of Quito (2,815 m.a.s.l.; population 2,011,388; 197.09 km2) in the following three methodological moments: i) field/laboratory: city-wide sampling design established to collect 300 soil samples (0–15 cm) and obtain data on organic carbon (OC) concentrations in addition to 30 samples for bulk density (BD); ii) predictors: geographic, spectral and anthropogenic dimensions established from 17 co-variables; and iii) spatial modeling: simple multiple regression (SMRM) and random forest (RFM) models of organic carbon concentrations and density as well as OCS stock estimation. We found that the spatial modeling techniques were complementary; however, SMRM showed a relatively higher fit both (OC: r2 = 20%, BD: r2 = 16%) when compared to RFM (OC: r2 = 8% and BD: r2 = 5%). Thus, soil carbon stock (0–0.15 m) was estimated with a spatial variation that fluctuated between 9.89 and 21.48 kg/m2; whereas, RFM showed fluctuations between 10.38 and 17.67 kg/m2. We found that spatial predictors (topography, relative humidity, precipitation, temperature) and anthropogenic predictors (population density, roads, vehicle traffic, land cover) positively influence the model, while spatial predictors have little influence and show multicollinearity with relative humidity. Our research suggests that urban land management in the 21st century provides key information for adaptation and mitigation strategies aimed at coping with global and local climate variations in the cities of the Tropical Andes. © 2022 Elsevier B.V.
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Modelling the relationship between urban expansion processes and urban forest characteristics: An application to the Metropolitan District of Quito
(2020)
Bonilla Bedoya, Santiago
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Mora A., Vaca A.
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Estrella A.
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Herrera M.Á.
The rapid process of global urbanisation engenders changes in urban socio-ecological systems and in the landscape structure. However, the future processes of urban expansion in Latin American cities has been little studied even though the wellbeing of its citizens will depend on territorial management and on planning the provision of ecosystemic benefits and services. This research, considering different socio-ecological dimensions, proposed to determine the causes of potential urban expansion, analysing the dimensions and possible predictors that would explain the expansion of a high Andean city and its influence on peri-urban forest landscapes. To develop a model that integrates the complexity of the system, we used the following five dimensions: biophysics, land cover and management, infrastructure and services, socio-economics, and landscape metrics, and we opted for a binomial analysis through a spatial logistic regression model developed from 33 predictors. Considering the odd radio of the model, we observe that the independent increase in predictors, including building blocks, drinking water, sewerage, waste collection, average land size, the Interspersion and Juxtaposition Index (IJI) and Largest Patch Index (LPI), and the constant behaviour of the others predictors, would increase the probability of a potential urbanisation of the territory. Similarly, the independent increase in predictors, including the presence of protected areas, the presence of protected forests, land cover, unemployment, and the Shannon Diversity Index(SHDI), reduce the probability of the urbanisation process. Our results suggest that the territorial vulnerability from a potential urbanisation process is strongly related to an increase in infrastructure, services, and the average size of properties variables. Moreover, the landscape with the greatest potential for urbanisation presents an adequate intercalation of the different patches that compose it. However, the presence of variables such as protected areas and protective forests, in addition to monitoring indicators such as landscape diversity and mitigation strategies, could be considered to focus the analysis on the current dynamics of urbanisation processes in Latin America. © 2019 Elsevier Ltd
Scopus© Citations 31 69
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Patterns of timber harvesting and its relationship with sustainable forest management in the western Amazon, Ecuador case
(2017)
Bonilla Bedoya, Santiago
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Estrella-Bastidas A.
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Ordoñez M.
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Sánchez A.
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Herrera M.A.
The Amazon rainforest lies within the most diverse forest ecosystem in the world. However, a large part of the tropical rainforest is being degraded because of timber harvesting without any sustainability criteria and owing to a limited understanding of the effects of forest exploitation. The Ecuadorian Amazon (EA) is part of the Andes Amazon (AA), an area covered by five countries (Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia). This research identified the patterns of legal timber harvesting in the EA and determined current trends with respect to mostly harvested forest species. Two harvesting programs aimed at small farmers prevail in the EA: first, naturally regenerated trees felling program, and simplified timber harvesting programs in native forests. Considering the surface and volume of logging, significant differences were detected between logging procedures and ecosystems in the region. Two hundred and thirty-two genera are registered for harvest and, 51.93% of the total harvesting volume comes from eight genera and ten species. This research shows that in fallows of fragmented forest ecosystems, small farmers are harvesting fast-growing pioneer species. Maintaining a sustainable production in timber harvesting depends, by and large, on the harvesting and felling programs established on small farms. © 2017 Taylor & Francis.
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Calculating minimum safety distance against wildfires at the wildland-urban interface in Chile and Spain
(2022)
Castillo Soto, M.E.
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Molina Martínez, J.R.
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Bonilla Bedoya, Santiago
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Moreno García, R.A.
Wildfires in the urban-forest interface constitute a civil protection emergency, causing considerable personal injury and damage to properties. The potential impacts of wildfires on buildings can be minimized by reducing the surrounding fuel and the use of structural materials with low flammability. However, the costs associated with implementing these actions and the responsibility for maintenance usually present conflicts with the property owners. This study aimed to identify minimum safety distances in wildland-urban interfaces within priority areas. The priority areas were identified based on the integration of fire risk and fuel hazard. Radiant heat is a variable in the behavior of fire that directly influences the definition of safety distances. In this research the radiant heat transfer was calculated based on the potential fire behavior for each study area. A comparative study of the horizontal heat transfer method and the radiant heat flux model was carried out. The horizontal heat transfer method indicated the highest vegetation-free distances, ranging from 23 m to 32 m. Some safety distances were validated using experimental fires and wildfires. The findings from the experimental fires and wildfires emphasize the need for a progressive fuel load reduction to mitigate radiant heat transfer. This may include both the removal of surface fuel and removal of trees to mitigate against crown fires. Our findings provide relevant information for decision-making on the effectiveness and efficiency of safety distances at the wildland-urban interface. © 2022 The Author(s)
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Socioecological system and potential deforestation in Western Amazon forest landscapes
(2018)
Bonilla Bedoya, Santiago
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Estrella-Bastidas A.
;
Molina J.R.
;
Herrera M.Á.
The ecosystem services provided by tropical forests are affected by deforestation. Territorial management strategies aim to prevent and mitigate forest loss. Therefore, modeling potential land use changes is important for forest management, monitoring, and evaluation. This study determined whether there are relationships between forest vulnerability to deforestation (potential deforestation distribution) and the forest management policies applied in the Ecuadorian Amazon. Proxy and underlying variables were used to construct a statistical model, based on the principle of maximum entropy that could predict potential land use changes. Entropy can be seen as a measure of uncertainty for a density function. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis and the Jackknife Test were used to validate the model. The importance of input variables in the model was determined through: Percent Contribution (PC) and Permutation Importance (PI). The results were compared with prevailing regional forest management strategies. The socioeconomic variables that provided the largest amount of information in the overall model (AUC = 0.81) and that showed most of the information not present in other variables were: “Protected areas-Intangible zone” (PC = 24%, PI = 12.4%), “timber harvesting programs” (PC = 21.7%, PI = 4.7%), “road network” (PC = 18.9%, PI = 7.7%), and “poverty rate” (PC = 3.7%, PI = 6.1%). Also, the biophysical variable “temperature” (PC = 7,9%, PI = 22.3%) provided information in the overall model. The results suggested the need for changes in forest management strategies. Forest policies and management plans should consider integrating and strengthening protected areas and intangible zones, as well as restricting timber harvesting in native forest and establishing forest areas under permanent management. Furthermore, the results also suggested that financial incentive programs to reduce deforestation have to be evaluated because their present distribution is inefficient. In this context, conservation incentive plans need to be revised so that they focus on areas at deforestation risk. © 2018 Elsevier B.V.
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War Impact on Air Quality in Ukraine
(2022)
Zalakeviciute, R.
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Mejia, D.
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Alvarez, H.
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Bermeo, X.
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Bonilla Bedoya, Santiago
In the light of the 21st century, after two devastating world wars, humanity still has not learned to solve their conflicts through peaceful negotiations and dialogue. Armed conflicts, both international and within a single state, still cause devastation, displacement, and death all over the world. Not to mention the consequences that war has on the environment. Due to a lack of published research about war impact on modern air quality, this work studies air pollution evolution during the first months of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Satellite images of NO2, CO, O3, SO2, and PM2.5 over Ukrainian territory and PM2.5 land monitoring data for Kyiv were analyzed. The results showed that NO2 and PM2.5 correlated the most with war activities. CO and O3 levels increased, while SO2 concentrations reduced four-fold as war intensified. Drastic increases in pollution (especially PM2.5) from bombing and structural fires, raise additional health concerns, which might have serious implications for the exposed local and regional populations. This study is an invaluable proof of the impact any armed conflict has on air quality, the population, and environment. © 2022 by the authors.
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Gradient boosting machine to assess the public protest impact on urban air quality
(2021)
Zalakeviciute R.
;
Rybarczyk Y.
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Alexandrino K.
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Bonilla Bedoya, Santiago
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Mejia D.
Political and economic protests build-up due to the financial uncertainty and inequality spreading throughout the world. In 2019, Latin America took the main stage in a wave of protests. While the social side of protests is widely explored, the focus of this study is the evolution of gaseous urban air pollutants during and after one of these events. Changes in concentrations of NO2, CO, O3 and SO2 during and after the strike, were studied in Quito, Ecuador using two approaches: (i) inter-period observational analysis; and (ii) machine learning (ML) gradient boosting machine (GBM) developed business-as-usual (BAU) comparison to the observations. During the strike, both methods showed a large reduction in the concentrations of NO2 (31.5–32.36%) and CO (15.55–19.85%) and a slight reduction for O3 and SO2. The GBM approach showed an exclusive potential, especially for a lengthier period of predictions, to estimate strike impact on air quality even after the strike was over. This advocates for the use of machine learning techniques to estimate an extended effect of changes in human activities on urban gaseous pollution. © 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
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