Predictors of in-hospital mortality among critically ill neonates admitted to a tertiary NICU in Ecuador
Journal
BMC Pediatrics
ISSN
14712431
Date Issued
2026-06-16
Author(s)
Noboa-Salgado, Mariana
Type
Article
Abstract
Background: Neonatal mortality remains a major challenge in low- and middle-income countries, where locally derived evidence from neonatal intensive care units is limited. We aimed to identify factors associated with in-hospital mortality among critically ill neonates admitted to a tertiary NICU in Quito, Ecuador, and to evaluate an internally validated mortality prediction model. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of inborn neonates aged ≤ 28 days admitted to the NICU of Isidro Ayora Gynecology and Obstetrics Hospital from January 1 to December 31, 2022. Maternal, perinatal, neonatal, early clinical severity, laboratory, respiratory support, clinical course, and resource utilization variables were extracted from medical records. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Bivariate analyses and multivariable logistic regression were performed. Model performance was assessed using discrimination, calibration, bootstrap internal validation, and decision curve analysis. Results: Among 220 critically ill neonates, 87 (39.5%) died. Small-for-gestational-age status was independently associated with mortality after adjustment for birth weight category, gestational age, sex, congenital malformations, and antenatal corticosteroid exposure (adjusted OR, 2.57; 95% CI, 1.29–5.14; P=.01). Birth weight < 1400 g was associated with greater clinical severity and resource use but not independently with mortality. Early hemodynamic instability, metabolic acidosis, higher lactate, higher FiO₂, thrombocytopenia, and higher oxygenation index were more frequent among non-survivors. The final model showed good discrimination (apparent AUC, 0.870; optimism-corrected AUC, 0.854) and acceptable calibration. Among survivors, each additional day of invasive mechanical ventilation was associated with longer NICU stay. Conclusion: In this tertiary Ecuadorian NICU cohort, small-for-gestational-age status was independently associated with mortality. These findings support fetal growth assessment, early severity evaluation, and locally validated neonatal risk stratification. © The Author(s) 2026.