Optimization of Electric Transformer Operation Through Load Estimation Based on the K-Means Algorithm

Pedro Torres-Bermeo; Varela Aldas, José; Kevin López-Eugenio; Nancy Velasco; Guillermo Palacios-Navarro

doi:10.3390/en18143755

Optimization of Electric Transformer Operation Through Load Estimation Based on the K-Means Algorithm

Journal

Energies

ISSN

1996-1073

Date Issued

2025

Author(s)

Pedro Torres-Bermeo

Varela Aldas, José

Centro de investigación en Mecatrónica y Sistemas Interactivos

Kevin López-Eugenio

Nancy Velasco

Guillermo Palacios-Navarro

Type

journal-article

DOI

10.3390/en18143755

URL

https://cris.indoamerica.edu.ec/handle/123456789/9270

Abstract

This study presents an innovative methodology to optimize the operation of distribution transformers through the estimation of hourly load curves, aimed at minimizing technical losses due to oversizing, particularly in systems lacking advanced metering infrastructure. The proposed approach combines clustering techniques, K-Means with DTW, to identify representative daily consumption patterns and a supervised model based on LightGBM to estimate hourly load curves for unmetered transformers, using customer characteristics as input. These estimated curves are integrated into a process that calculates technical losses, both no-load and load losses, for different transformer sizes, selecting the optimal rating that minimizes losses without compromising demand. Empirical validation showed accuracy levels of 95.6%, 95.29%, and 98.14% at an individual transformer, feeder, and a complete electrical system with 16,864 transformers, respectively. The application of the methodology to a real distribution system revealed a potential annual energy savings of 3004 MWh, equivalent to an estimated economic reduction of 150,238 USD.